Global energy markets remain under pressure as escalating conflict in the Middle East continues to push oil prices sharply higher.
Global energy markets remain under pressure as escalating conflict in the Middle East continues to push oil prices sharply higher, heightening concerns about inflation and rising fuel costs. The price of Brent crude has surged above $115 per barrel following renewed attacks linked to Iran, after an earlier strike associated with Israel targeted infrastructure tied to the South Pars gas field.
Intensified fears
In a widening escalation, missile strikes reportedly hit facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar – the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export hub.
Drone attacks have also targeted a refinery in Saudi Arabia, while fires were reported at energy sites in Kuwait.
The developments have intensified fears of supply disruptions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil flows.
Sharp fuel price pressure in South Africa
The global surge is already being felt locally.
According to the Central Energy Fund, mid-March data shows significant under-recoveries:
- Petrol: up to R5.62 per litre
- Diesel: around R9.51 per litre
These figures point to steep fuel price hikes in April if current trends persist.
Rand weakness compounds impact
South Africa’s reliance on imported fuel leaves it particularly vulnerable to global price shocks.
Fuel prices are determined by:
- International oil prices
- The rand-dollar exchange rate
- Government taxes and levies
With the rand also under pressure, the risk of higher prices at the pumps is further amplified.
Inflation concerns grow
Rising fuel costs are expected to ripple across the economy, increasing:
- Transport costs
- Production expenses
- Consumer prices
This could place renewed upward pressure on inflation in the coming months.
Oil prices have climbed from below $60 per barrel earlier this year to well above $100, reflecting growing geopolitical uncertainty and supply risks.
Tough outlook for consumers
If tensions in the Middle East persist, South African motorists are likely to face significant increases in fuel prices, adding strain to already stretched household budgets.
While the current pricing cycle is still underway, the outlook remains uncertain, with global instability expected to keep fuel costs elevated in the near term.
Latest forecast
Below, the latest projections as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
FUEL · PRICE CHANGE
Petrol 93 · increase of 507 cents
Petrol 95 · increase of 562 cents
Diesel 0.05% · increase of 937 cents
Diesel 0.005% · increase of 951 cents
Illuminating Paraffin · increase of 1 125 cents
If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 507 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 562 cents for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 937 and 951 cents per litre increase.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 1 125 cents in price.
Fuel price in SA impacted by two main factors
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $98.17 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.99/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on either Tuesday, 31 March or Tuesday, 7 April (TBC).
The March 2026 petrol and diesel prices (inland and coastal)
INLAND · March
Petrol 93 · R20.19
Petrol 95 · R20.30
Diesel 0.05% · R18.53
Diesel 0.005% · R18.60
Illuminating paraffin · R12.54
COASTAL · March
Petrol 93 · R19.40
Petrol 95 · R19.47
Diesel 0.05% · R17.70
Diesel 0.005% · R17.84
Illuminating paraffin · R11.52
Article courtesy The South African
Alexis Knipe
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